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Now that my undefeated record of choosing No. 13 seeds or decrease within the NCAA Event publicly continues to be intact after Furman’s victory over Virginia on Thursday, I’m deciding to not relaxation on my laurels and let you know all about one other prediction I made earlier this week. For followers of Deadspin’s Agree to Disagree video sequence, it is a choice I’ve already proclaimed on camera. Auburn will upset the Midwest area’s No. 1 seed in Houston on Saturday. It’s not fairly the lopsided upset as choosing the Paladins or Saint Peter’s over Kentucky final yr, nevertheless it’s little question not what’ll be favored.
The Cougars seemed horrible in opposition to one of many worst groups within the NCAA Event. Northern Kentucky bought out of a weak low-major within the Horizon League. The Norse genuinely impressed me final evening and held powerful with one of many supposed finest groups within the nation. Kelvin Sampson’s squad earned that No. 1 seed and was arguably probably the most constant workforce within the nation through the common season. And Houston both was trying previous a workforce it knew it may simply defeat, or the upstart Norse actually uncovered what a Marcus Sasser-less workforce appears like.
Should you take the perfect participant away from any nice workforce, it received’t be as mighty anymore. Purdue with out Zach Edey is a bubble workforce and could be enjoying within the NIT proper now. Alabama with out Brandon Miller, which ought to be a actuality proper now with the off-court drama surrounding the Crimson Tide, would’ve gotten a powerful seed in The Large Dance, however doubtless extra towards the 4-5 line. Sasser is that needle-mover for the Cougars. The drop-off with out the 6-foot-2 senior guard and likely NBA lottery pick due to a groin damage suffered within the American Athletic Convention Event final week, is obvious. He was pulled at halftime by Sampson and Houston was inconsistent with out him.
Auburn had a real toss-up matchup with Iowa on paper. The Tigers have been all the time higher than their seeding, whereas Iowa wasn’t. The Hawkeyes have by no means had a long term within the match beneath Fran McCaffery and this yr’s Kris Murray-led squad was no totally different. The SEC outmuscled the Large Ten. There’s no manner round that. And Auburn may have thrown a couple of extra punches on the finish of the sport if wanted. Within the nightcap, it was apparent by the top of the sport how drained Northern Kentucky was. A workforce higher conditioned to play with Houston, which will likely be each workforce the Cougars see the remainder of the season, will be capable of take higher benefit of a inclined, unmotivated squad. And if the shortage of drive isn’t actuality for UH, it didn’t present it in opposition to the Norse. It additionally has a fantastic likelihood for redemption in opposition to Auburn. However nothing’s assured. And Bruce Pearl-coached groups normally don’t miss when provided that form of alternative.
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It’s not clear if Sasser will play at 7:10 p.m. on TBS with a visit to the Candy 16 on the road. It’s clear that if he performs, he received’t be at full well being, which is already a downgrade from what we’ve anticipated from the Cougars for many of this season. Auburn is a workforce that’s gone by a bunch of adversity this season and nonetheless discovered its manner safely into March Insanity. It’s a special form of entice to outline the adversity for Houston. Saying the Cougars have been by none can be silly. Their paths of resistance have been examined in video games, with extra tangible rewards, like 11 more wins than the Tigers this season, alongside the best way. That’ll imply little come Saturday evening in Birmingham, a brief 110-mile journey from Auburn. And it may not be a house recreation for the AU, nevertheless it ought to really feel prefer it from the gang. Houston’s strolling into enemy territory and I don’t assume it’ll be robust sufficient to stroll out of the primetime matchup nonetheless with a season to play for.
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